Forecast Predictions

The March to May (MAM) 2025 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for Uganda forecasts near-normal to above-normal rainfall across most regions, with a delayed onset due to tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean. Rainfall is expected to begin in mid-to-late March, peak between mid-April and early May, and gradually decrease in early June. Warmer-than-average temperatures are also anticipated. The forecast highlights potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, health, and disaster management, advising proactive measures such as improved drainage, early planting, and disease prevention. Authorities urge the protection of wetlands and forests to support climate stability.

Most parts of the country are expected to see near-normal to above-normal rainfall, especially during September, with rainfall tapering off between November and early December. However, some areas in the central, southwestern, and northeastern regions may experience near-normal to below-normal rainfall. While these conditions generally support key activities like agriculture, the forecast also warns of potential localized flash floods due to heavy downpours. Uneven rainfall distribution in some areas may impact crop yields and water availability, requiring careful planning for farmers and communities.

The June to August 2024 (JJA) seasonal rainfall outlook for Uganda indicates that most of the country will experience varying rainfall patterns. Northern Uganda, including the northwestern and northeastern regions, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall, continuing from the previous season. Meanwhile, central, southwestern, and parts of the Lake Victoria basin are likely to experience predominantly dry conditions. Other areas will receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall. Key climate drivers include neutral sea surface temperatures and regional factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. While northern and eastern regions can expect favorable conditions for agriculture, southern parts may see reduced rainfall. Additionally, localized flash floods may occur due to isolated heavy downpours, even in areas predicted to receive near-normal rainfall. These conditions will impact agricultural production and food security across different regions.